Welcome to a New Year with new policies from a new administration and a host of uncertain outcomes as a result.
Uncertainty seems to be a consensus reached by many economic and financial forecasters this year. Some forecasts are certainly more optimistic than others, but the common theme being highlighted is the uncertain outcome of new policies expected to come from the Trump administration. Fortunately for us, we have these giant machines called financial markets that run on Uncertainty (with a capital U). Uncertainty goes in, it constantly gets washed down with new information, it all gets digested, assets get priced and re-priced accordingly, and on we go. It’s because markets are always uncertain that we diversify risk.
All the talk of Uncertainty, as if it’s something new, reminds me of a song Bon Jovi released on the 2010 Greatest Hits album called, The More Things Change. The song was based on a phrase attributed to the French writer, Jean-Baptiste Alphonse Karr, in 1849:
The more things change, the more they stay the same.
With a couple of additional words, perhaps we can make it more specific to us as investors:
The more headlines change, the more Uncertainty stays the same.
The point is, whether headlines are focused on politics, China, oil, debt, the Middle East, etc., Uncertainty is the great constant in investing. It is always present. The question is, how do you address Uncertainty to give yourself the highest probability of achieving your goals? We help you answer that question with the appropriate diversification and mitigation of risk in your financial plan.
It is through this lens that we share this month’s Perspective, a tour du monde 2017 Forecast from Stratfor:
https://www.stratfor.com/forecast/2017-annual-forecast
If you are running low in the confidence, clarity and sense of security department when it comes to your financial goals then it may be time to update your plan. Just let us know!
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