Broker Check

October 2015 Perspective: What's the Forecast?

October 01, 2015
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Last quarter we brought you an independent market outlook from one of our tactical managers, Harry Clark.  A few highlights from Harry’s Perspective as of July:

 

  • The current bull market in US stocks is getting old by historical standards, but it’s not over
  • A selloff in the 10% range could be good and help the bull market continue [a bear market is a 20%+ decline by definition]
  • The Fed adds to the uncertainty: they may or may not raise rates this year, which may or may not lead to a bear market
  • Harry put the odds about 50/50 that the current Bull market will last through the end of the year

 

How are we tracking with Harry’s comments?  While the market has been choppy, the Bull market has not technically ended. We got the 10% correction that Harry said could be healthy back in August, with partial recovery since. The Fed interest rate policy is still very uncertain with their talk about raising rates, but no follow through at their September meeting.  It remains to be seen whether the Bull market will “climb the wall of worry” and continue through the end of the year.

 

For more on the current state of the markets, we are turning to J.P. Morgan for a Perspective from Wall Street. Spoiler Alert! This quote from their Outlook for the rest of the year sums up their view of the US stock market:

 

“We think that the summer sell off in equities has left developed market equities looking attractive with the potential for upside from here.”  

 

Click for the full article: http://insights.jpmorgan.co.uk/adviser/commentary-and-analysis/wp-content/uploads/Q3-Quarterly-Market-Review.pdf

 

Only time will tell whether the Bull market will continue and a Market Participation Strategy will be successful. Or, will a Market Diversifier Strategy be better suited to the market conditions ahead?  Just as you wouldn’t concentrate all of your money in one stock, our All Weather Portfolios don’t concentrate all of your money in one strategy. We prefer to create opportunities for growth in all market environments by including Market Participation Strategies, Market Diversifier Strategies and other Specialty Strategies in customized All Weather Portfolios for our clients. Prepare for the weather ahead, whatever it is.

 CRN1333298-102215